Executive Summary
Weather shocks represent a major threat to global security. Climate stress increases risk of
conflict, particularly among agriculturally dependent economies.1 The U.S. Department of
Defense’s 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) declared climate-induced stressors as threat
multipliers among the world’s fragile regions.2 An empirical relationship between higher
temperatures and sub-state violence has been demonstrated in a number of studies.3 The stability
of modern societies – not just in ancient times – relates strongly to global climate.
Building on these earlier works, our white paper specifically looks at various scenarios that could
happen during a strong El Niño year. Using the latest findings in meteorology and social science,
this study is organized into two major parts: (1) the fundamental science and prediction of the El
Niño phenomenon, and (2) ten potential security scenarios that may be induced or exacerbated
by El Niño.