Executive Summary
Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) leader Joseph Kony has proven capable of outmaneuvering internal rivals and external military threats for nearly three decades, but his once firm control over the group’s command structure is eroding. LRA groups are scattered across a vast territory, and Ugandan fighters are defecting at a slow but steady rate, demoralized by Kony’s harsh disciplinary measures and lack of vision for the future. At least one group of LRA officers led by Achaye Doctor has splintered and is operating independently of Kony’s command.
Regardless of its inner turmoil, the LRA remains a persistent, and even resurgent, threat to civilians, particularly in eastern Central African Republic (CAR). The group abducted 344 people there in the first six months of 2016, more than it has the first six months of any year since 2010.1 Most abductees were adults forced to porter looted goods towards LRA camps before being released, but LRA defectors report that in December 2015 Kony also ordered officers in CAR to abduct several dozen children and integrate them into the rebel group. By the end of June 2016, the LRA had abducted 65 Central African children, 39 of whom remain in captivity or are otherwise unaccounted for. However, at least 15 teenage boys abducted in previous years have defected so far in 2016, making it unclear if the overall number of child soldiers within the LRA is rising or falling.
LRA violence in northern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) was lower in Quarter 1 of 2016 (January– March) than it was in comparable periods of the previous two years. However, LRA attacks and abductions in DRC more than doubled in Quarter 2 (April–May), in part due to the arrival of an LRA group in Garamba National Park tasked with poaching elephants.
In total, the LRA abducted 498 civilians and killed 17 others during 122 attacks from January–June 2016, with nearly all attacks in eastern CAR and northern DRC. The exceptions were two attacks in Sudanese-controlled areas of the Kafia Kingi enclave, the first credibly reported LRA attacks on civilians there since the group established a presence in the area in 2010.