OVERVIEW
Thailand is a country of 67 million peoplea which, despite challenges, has had sustained economic growth since the late 1980’s.b After many years of progress Thailand has attained upper middle income status and is likely to meet most of the Millennium Development Goals.b A universal health-coverage scheme was established in 2002c and in 2013 total expenditure on health was 4.6% of GDP.d Investments in population health and infrastructure, though, are likely to be threatened by climate change – particularly through increased exposure to rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and sea level rise. Poverty (12.64% of the population was below the poverty line in 2012e), urban expansion, deforestation, and soil degradation may further complicate the situation, reducing community resilience and adaptive capacity.
A climate-change strategy is currently being devised, but efforts are still required to ensure the health system in Thailand is fully prepared to respond to many of the worst effects of climate change.
SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS
• Under a high emissions scenario, mean annual temperature is projected to rise by about 4.3°C on average from 1990 to 2100. If emissions decrease rapidly, the temperature rise is limited to about 1.3°C.
• Under a high emissions scenario, and without large investments in adaptation, an average of 2.4 million people are projected to be affected by flooding due to sea level rise every year between 2070 and 2100. If emissions decrease rapidly and there is a major scale up in protection (i.e. continued construction/raising of dikes) the annual population affected by flooding could be limited to about 600 people. Adaptation alone will not offer sufficient protection, as sea level rise is a long-term process, with high emissions scenarios bringing increasing impacts well beyond the end of the century.
• Under a high emissions scenario heat-related deaths in the elderly (65+ years) are projected to increase to about 58 deaths per 100,000 by 2080 compared to the estimated baseline of about 3 deaths per 100,000 annually between 1961 and 1990. A rapid reduction in emissions could limit heat-related deaths in the elderly to just under 11 deaths per 100,000 by 2080.
• By 2070, approximately 71 million people are projected to be at risk of malaria assuming a high emissions scenario. If emissions decrease rapidly, projections indicate this number could decrease slightly to about 66 million.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ACTION
Thailand is currently implementing projects on health adaptation to climate change and is taking action to build institutional and technical capacities to work on climate change and health.
Country reported data (see section 6) indicate there remain opportunities for action:
A (Draft) National Strategic Plan on Climate Change and Health B.E. 2015–2020 has been drafted; approval is being processed. This Strategic plan will be a national framework for building resilience to climate impacts and health risks which include adaptation and mitigation measures.
1) Adaptation
• Increase climate resilient infrastructure, including health infrastructure.
• Build capacity for public to understand health risks and take appropriate actions to prepare and reduce climate change impacts.
2) Mitigation
• Encourage public health facilities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
• Identify the health benefits associated with reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other climate pollutants.