OVERVIEW
Tanzania is a country of geographic diversity, extending from a narrow coastal belt of the western Indian Ocean to an extensive plateau of altitude 1000 to 2000 meters above sea level. Climatological data and observational evidence from local communities indicate increased climate variability and change already present: increasing temperature, late rainfall onset, decreasing rainfall amounts and shifts in pattern rainfall.a This threatens agricultural productivity, the marine ecosystem, vector and infectious disease distribution, and can cause severe droughts such as those seen in Tanzania in recent years.a Despite minimal contribution to global climate change, with over 33.5 million hectares of forestry reserves and sizable rural land under forest cover, Tanzania’s commitment to the conservation of its forests is timely as a sink for greenhouse gases produced globally. Tanzania is engaged in climate change adaptation and in global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the context of sustainable economic growth.
SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS
• Under a high emissions scenario, mean annual temperature is projected to rise by about 4.7°C on average from 1990 to 2100. If emissions decrease rapidly, the temperature rise is limited to about 1.2°C.
• Under a high emissions scenario, and without large investments in adaptation, an annual average of 808,200 people are projected to be affected by flooding due to sea level rise between 2070 and 2100. If emissions decrease rapidly and there is a major scale up in protection (i.e. continued construction/raising of dikes) the annual affected population could be limited to about 500 people. Adaptation alone will not offer sufficient protection, as sea level rise is a long-term process, with high emissions scenarios bringing increasing impacts well beyond the end of the century.
• Under a high emissions scenario, diarrhoeal deaths attributable to climate change in children under 15 years old are projected to be about 9.3% of the over 17,700 diarrhoeal deaths projected in 2030. Although diarrhoeal deaths are projected to decline to just over 7,200 by 2050 the proportion of deaths attributable to climate change is projected to rise to about 13.4%.
• Under a high emissions scenario heat-related deaths in the elderly (65+ years) are projected to increase to over 38 deaths per 100,000 by 2080 compared to the estimated baseline of under 2 deaths per 100,000 annually between 1961 and 1990. A rapid reduction in emissions could limit heat-related deaths in the elderly to under 8 deaths per 100,000 in 2080.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ACTION
Whilst Tanzania is taking initiatives to implement health adaptation programmes, and is building institutional and technical capacities to work on climate change and health, country reported data (see section 6) indicate that there remain opportunities for action in the following areas:
1) Adaptation
• Conducting a national assessment of climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation.
• Implement activities to increase climate resilient infrastructure, including health infrastructure.
• Estimate costs to implement health resilience to climate change.
2) Mitigation
• Conduct valuation of co-benefits to health of climate change mitigation policies.
3) National policy implementation
• Develop a national health adaptation strategy.