Key Findings and Issues (Briefly discuss key findings)
The analysis was conducted at the locality level. One state was not classified due to lack of information, (West Kordofan). The current classification ranges between phases 1 – 3. The main livelihood systems are: pastoral and agro pastoral which are directly affected by the rainy season.
Compared to the previous analysis (May – August) there is a change in the food security situation in many localities. As this is the lean period, the available food is insufficient to meet all food requirements in some localities( phase 3 and some of phase 2), but some states still they are not affected by the lean season. Food aid and Zakat assistant contribute to maintain food gap in the most affected areas. Food reserve depleting at HH level while the national stock is sufficient (private sector ),but this contradict with the low purchasing power of venerable population to access food through purchases. Animal conditions is affected by low rainfall, in some nomadic areas which is the bulk areas of livestock rearing, there is a change in the traditional movement of the animals due to shortage of pasture and water ( low rainfall).
Refugees and displacement increase the number of vulnerable population and cause stress on the available food. The prices of the main staple crops started to increase during this period:
The late and below average rains received in vast areas of the rained sector was reflected in an increasing cereal prices across most of the monitored markets by the end of August. However the carried stocks of 2014/15 above average production was still limiting the prices from surpassing their corresponding levels of August 2014.
The increasing demand of livestock during the pilgrimage and Eid period coincides with the current increase in cereal prices and hence the terms of trade between the two items remained stable.
Sorghum prices increased on average by 12 percent, 15, 26, and 28 across different markets in Sudan, Millet Wholesale prices followed the same increasing trend of sorghum price across most reference markets in Sudan. Between July and August, prices increased by 12 percent on average, 17, 20, 23 and 36 across different markets in Sudan, between July and August, wholesale prices of the locally produced wheat showed relatively more stable trend due to the availability of recently imported subsidized wheat and wheat flour. August wheat prices were on average 2 percent higher than that of July. Added to that it is expected to decrease more due to the recent trend of opening the imports.
Prices of other food crops like vegetables and fruits increased by 20 - 30 (winter production).
The terms of trade (ToT) of cereals and livestock continued its stable trend due to the increasing trend of both items; as livestock prices are getting higher due to the increasing local and exports demand during the pilgrimage and Eid events. The total number of classified localities is 148.
Phase 1: From the total classified localities, 30 localities had been classified at phase 1.
Causes: Good availability due to good stocks from the previous production and relatively good access to food, many reasons encountered like the diversified income sources and the relative stability of production ( most of these areas fall in irrigated areas). Livelihoods diversity, more than 80% have access to food and safe and sufficient water. Good social safety nets, food diversity. Basic services (roads and transportation).
Phase 2: According to the current analysis, the number of localities in this phase is 68 localities.
Causes:
Availability of food due to good production, but the HH reserves started to deplete. Stress in access to other food items (non staple). Vulnerable groups affected by increase of prices due to low purchasing power.
Hazards:
- High food prices.
Phase 3: The number of localities classified in this phase is 50 localities.
Causes:
Insecurity in some areas which affect the market structures, 25% from population face food consumption gaps, prevalence of malnutrition (GAM rates: ranges bet. 8.5%% - 30%, SAM ranges bet 6 -16 %.),. Poor food culture and practices. Poor animal feeding and shortage in drinking water. Dietary diversification and hygiene water symptoms are occurred in some localities (in some localities, people eat less than 3 food groups). Low health and nutrition awareness lead to bad food utilization, especially in the areas of high illiteracy. Gas cocking price is showing an increase of 10% in some localities. Some rural areas where charcoal is the main cooking material are highly affected by the elevation of the prices (price per sack increased by 100% compared to 6 months before).
Hazards:
Shortage in Drinking water less than 15 liters/p/d.
High rates of malnutrition:
IDPs and refugees cause some stress on the available food and the markets.
Insecurity and civil conflicts, also conflict between farmers and herders.
Prevalence of drought which affects the pastoral areas caused losses to 25% of the pastoral communities and leads to change in livelihood to selling of wood and charcoal especially in some eastern and western parts.