Key points:
- Prices for most basic foods remained relatively high in October - Maize grain prices rose by 14 percent in Beira (Sofala) compared to September - Prices have fallen slightly for imported rice, cow peas and cooking oil in Tete province - Imported goods such as rice and cooking oil are more expensive in Maputo province than in other areas - Stock shortages are forecast because of a lack of resources for restocking and stock unavailability at central markets.
Methodology
The October survey was conducted using live calls for a sample of 79 traders across 20 districts in the provinces of Gaza and Tete. This round, the survey covered more markets: one new market in Maputo (Magude) and two new markets in Manica (Chitope and Machaze). The questions focused on the prices of basic foods such as maize grain, maize meal, rice and cooking oil with an open-ended question to gauge traders’ perception of the food security situation in their areas. Phone surveys contain inherent response biases; therefore, the bulletin reports patterns and trends rather than precise estimates.
Food Security Outlook
Food prices in Mozambique are likely to be affected by the economic crisis and the reduced productivity of the last cropping season, among other shocks. Heading towards the first quarter of 2017 – which is the lean season – the prices of staples and essential imports will probably increase, at least up until the next harvest in March (source: FEWS NET Outlook 2016). The successful implementation of in-kind and cash-based transfers will serve as a buffer for many households, closing the hunger gap until the next harvest period. The significant depreciation of the local currency against the US dollar will continue to impede the flow of commercial food imports. The depreciation is reflected in the sharp increases in the prices of food and non-food items.