HIGHLIGHTS
Large scale failure of the rains during October and November 2016 led to severe drought conditions across Somalia, northern and eastern Kenya and southeast Ethiopia, resulting in extensive growing season failures and record low vegetation.
Across most of Somalia and SE Ethiopia, recovery is no longer possible as the rainfall season has ended. In**Kenya** and southern Somalia, a longer season and better rains from mid November can still allow some recovery in pastoral areas.
Severe impacts on crop production are inevitable in**Somalia** and eastern Kenya. Even irrigated crop production will be affected as the drought extends over the key river basins. Pastoral resources are also severely hit, particularly in SE Ethiopia and central and north Somalia (Somaliland).
The drought is largely comparable to Oct-Nov 2010 except for coastal Kenya, northern Somalia, SE Ethiopia where it may be worse. Unlike the 2010 drought which was preceded by a good season, in 2016 the coping capacities of the most vulnerable households are already reduced given poor March-May rains.
Forecasts for the March-May 2017 rainfall are variable. However, alternative analysis suggest that eastern Horn of Africa could face another season with**below average rainfall**.
A scenario of a third drought affected season in a row should be considered, potentially leading to a situation similar to the 2010-2011 humanitarian crisis.