SUMMARY
Scenario 1: Continued low-level conflict, increasing returns
Duration of crisis More than 15 months
Overview: The conflict continues with neither the military or insurgents making significant territorial gains. Many areas of Borno remain insecure, with access a severe constraint. Few new IDPs emerge, while increasing numbers of IDPs return to the ‘safer’ LGAs, especially in early 2017, to prepare agricultural land. Almost all IDPs/refugees from Adamawa and Yobe return.
Scenario 2: Increasing security, multiple displacement flows
Duration of crisis More than 15 months
Overview: Initial military success enables the government to retake control of all urban areas, although much of rural Borno remains insecure. Insurgents regroup and increase the number and frequency of targeted attacks on state institutions and civilians in some areas. Almost all IDPs/refugees from Adamawa and Yobe states return, as do many from Borno. However, the increased insurgent activity in some areas of Borno and Yobe cause re-displacement of returnees.
Scenario 3: Widespread insecurity, famine
Duration of crisis Moree than 2 years
Overview: At least one of the insurgent factions changes tactics and regains popular support in some rural areas, increasing in strength. The conflict escalates, and spreads again into other states. Displacement increases significantly. Across the northeast, humanitarian access reduces as does the state’s, already limited, capacity to provide services.
Scenario 4: Negotiated settlement, large-scale returns
Duration of crisis 12–18 months
Overview: A negotiated settlement between the government and the main insurgent factions results in a sustained ceasefire, and precipitating large-scale returns to all areas. This overwhelms the state services in many LGAs. Access to land improves.
Localised insecurity persists due to splinter groups rejecting the ceasefire.
Humanitarian access improves slowly. Less media coverage leads to a fall in humanitarian funding, limiting the medium-term response.