HIGHLIGHTS
• In 2015, one of the strongest El Ninos on record, led to intense droughts in Ethiopia, Sudan and Somaliland. The growing season(s) of 2016 have assumed great importance: their performance will determine much of the well being of the affected populations, as further droughts could bring disastrous consequences.
• The first growing season of 2016 (Long Rains in Kenya, Belg in Ethiopia) got off to a poor start with drier than average conditions across most of the region, particularly in the hard hit Afar region of Ethiopia. However, heavy rains from early April, brought extensive relief to this region, Somaliland and SE Ethiopia.
• In contrast, in Somalia and parts of semi-arid Kenya improvements have been more modest, with drier than average conditions still affecting pastoral and rainfed agricultural areas.
• Vegetation cover in pastoral areas of Ethiopia and Somaliland, is now set to improve allowing some recovery of pastoral livelihoods. Further rainfall is required for semi-arid Kenya and Somalia to avoid further degradation in vegetation resources and rainfed crop condition.
• Forecasts for the remainder of this season are moderately optimistic for Ethiopian regions, but below average seasonal rainfall is expected for most of semi-arid Kenya and Somalia. This may lead to unfavourable conditions for pastoralists and rainfed agriculture at the outset of the long dry season.
• Forecasts for the main season (June-October) in Ethiopia, Sudan and South Sudan, point to a high likelihood of above average rainfall. Good recovery prospects for pastoral and agricultural livelihoods are balanced by the possibility of large flood events, particularly for South Sudan.