Key Findings
Despite improved food security following the 2015/16 Deyr harvest, improved livestock conditions, and mostly stable food prices, a large number of people across Somalia will be acutely food insecure through June 2016. Many children remain acutely malnourished, despite a very small decrease in their numbers since July 2015.
An estimated 953 000 people will be in Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4) through mid-2016, according to the latest findings from a joint assessment by the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit for Somalia (FSNAU), the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), and other partners. Internally displaced persons (IDPs) constitute 68 percent of the total number of people in Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4), 26 percent rural and the remaining 6 percent urban population.
Results of 39 nutrition surveys conducted across Somalia from October to December 2015 indicate that an estimated 304 700 children under the age of five are acutely malnourished, including 58 300 who are severely malnourished and face a high risk of morbidity and death.
The overall median Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) is 12.2 percent and median Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) is 2.2 percent. In 11 out of 34 livelihoods surveyed using Weightfor-Height Z-Score, the prevalence of acute malnutrition is considered Critical and exceeds the UN trigger for emergency action (Global Acute Malnutrition-GAM ≥ 15%) while Serious levels of GAM (≥10 to <15%) were observed in 16 out of 34 population groups surveyed. Alert level of GM (≥5 to <10%) were reported in the remaining seven.
Urgent lifesaving humanitarian assistance and livelihood support is required for populations in Emergency and Crisis (IPC Phases 4 and 3) between now and June 2016 to help meet immediate food needs, including urgent nutrition and health support for the acutely malnourished, particularly children. Nearly 3.7 million additional people are classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through June 2016 and require interventions to protect their livelihoods and build their resilience. This group of households remains highly vulnerable to shocks that could push them to food security Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phases 3 or 4).
Following are further details on factors that contributed to the reported food security outcomes:
• There was average to above-average rainfall in the surplus-producing regions of Bay and Lower Shabelle.
However, localized, below-average and poorly distributed rainfall were reported in parts of Bari, Sanag, Sool, Nugal, wogooyi Galbed and Awdal (North), parts of Central and along the Coast of Lower shabelle and Juba regions of South as well as some flooding in riverine areas of Middle Shabelle (Mahadey), Juba (Jamame) and Gedo (Bardere) regions damaging some standing crops and agricultural lands
• The Deyr 2015/16 cereal harvest in December/January is estimated to be 28 percent above the long-term average (1995-2014) and 18 percent higher compared to five-year average (2010-2014).
• Pasture and water availability remain typical in most regions, except in large parts of Northern Inland pastoral (NIP) of Sanaag, Sool, Bari and Nugaal regions, Northwest Agropastoral, parts of Golis (Awdal), parts of Coastal in South ( Lower Shabelle/Juba) - Central (between Hobyo and Hara-dhere) where pasture and water availability is poor to very poor.
• Milk availability is average in most of the livelihood zones.
Exceptions are rain deficit areas of North (Northern Inland Pastoral, Woqyi Galbeed agro pastoral and poor households in Guban –Awdal) where milk availability is low.
• Local cereal prices decreased or were stable from July to October 2015 in most markets of the south, but they started declining with the start of the December 2015 Deyr harvest in the major producing region of Bay and Shabelle.
• In urban areas in Southern Somalia affected by protracted trade disruption caused by insurgents (i.e. Hudur and Wajid of Bakool Region and Bulo Burte of Hiran Region), both local cereals and imported food prices have declined compared to one year ago (December 2014) and six months ago (July 2015). However, in Diinsor town of Bay Region which was captured from insurgents more recently, the prices of both local and imported commodities have increased substantially.
• Price of most imported commodities (rice, sugar and vegetable oil) have also declined or remained stable since July 2015
• Wage labor-to-cereals Terms of Trade increased or remained stable in most of the Southern region. On the other hand, livestock-to-cereals Terms of Trade decreased in the most regions due to declining livestock prices.
Areas and Populations of Concern
Most of the population in Crisis (IPC 3) and Emergency are concentrated in Bandar, Woqyi Galbeed, Bari and Awdal regions (about 65%), while other regions in the country contribute only 35 percent.