Overview
Two major crises are ongoing in South Sudan: armed conflict and severe food insecurity.
Fighting between government and opposition forces as well as intercommunal violence increased in mid-February in areas of Greater Upper Nile. Violence has mostly been concentrated around Malakal (Upper Nile), Pibor (Jonglei) and Leer (Unity). Greater Upper Nile hosts nearly 1.4 million IDPs, comprising 90% of the total IDP population of South Sudan. Fighting has also spread to Wau in Western Bahr el Ghazal where 8,000 displaced people are yet to receive assistance. In Western Equatoria, fighting has been ongoing since late 2015, where up to 80,000 people have been newly displaced.
Food insecurity has reached unprecedented levels: 2.8 million people are severely food insecure. Areas most affected include conflict-affected areas of Greater Upper Nile, particularly in central and southern Unity state where 40,000 people are close to Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Food insecurity has also worsened in regions that have previously been considered stable, including in Greater Equatoria and Northern Bahr El Ghazal.
Key findings
Anticipated scope and scale
Armed conflict
In line with seasonal trends, a continuation of violence is likely throughout the dry season which will last until August.
Government refusal to revoke the decision to restructure South Sudan from 10 to 28 states will likely exacerbate intercommunal conflict, particularly in areas in Greater Upper Nile, leading to greater displacement and increased humanitarian needs across all sectors.
Food insecurity
Food insecurity is expected to worsen throughout the protracted lean season, expected to last until August. The economic downturn, the below-average harvest, the worsening fuel crisis, and ongoing insecurity in areas with traditionally high agricultural production, will exacerbate the situation. Without assistance, the 40,000 people in Unity state are at severe risk of Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).
Priorities areas for humanitarian intervention
Unity state: 40,000 people are close to Catastrophe food insecurity, and sexual violence and armed looting occur regularly Jonglei: 2,500 displaced people at Pibor UN base have access to only 1.5 L of water per person per day.
Western Equatoria: fighting is currently most consistent across this state. Numerous arbitrary killings, detentions, sexual violence and looting and burning of homes.
Humanitarian constraints
Ongoing conflict restricts access to some areas of Jonglei, Upper Nile, and Unity and Western Equatoria. Since the start of the year humanitarian actors have also been denied access to Wau,
Western Bahr el Ghazal.