1. Introduction
1.1 Background
This report includes the main results of the public opinion poll on the current election, 2015, in six out of Sudan’s 18 states. The opinion poll reflects the general public’s satisfaction with what the government of Sudan calls “the citizens’ constitutional rights” to choose their president and parliamentary representatives. The six states where this survey was carried out are Khartoum,
River Nile, Kassala, Northern Kordofan, Aljazeera and White Nile states. The results were gathered in the field through direct structured interviews and covered all localities of the surveyed states. The sample size for the survey was determined by the accuracy, and degree of precision required for the survey estimates for each state and available resources. The interviews were carried out by 75 qualified young researchers managed by nine supervisors.
The April 2015 elections took place against the backdrop of deep political polarization in the country. The polarization came as a result of 25 years of bad governance; with the headlines of war, oppression and poverty. The government ignored all calls and demands by opposition parties to postpone the elections until the national dialogue, which was declared by the president, is carried out and its outcomes are concluded. Nevertheless the ruling party pressed ahead with the election. The main opposition parties of the “National Consensus Forces” declared that they would be boycotting the elections, leaving only the ruling NCP and its satellites of small splinter groups from the two main parties (five Umma parties and four Democratic Unionist parties) to contest it.
The African Union Commission (AUC) sent a pre-election assessment mission to Khartoum in early March 2015. The overall objective of the mission was “to consider the state of preparedness for the polls by all stakeholders and examine the context within which the election will take place, to ensure that they are held within the framework of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance to which Sudan is a signatory”. The findings of this mission were published in a report a few days later. The report states that “the necessary conditions and environment for the holding of transparent, competitive, free and fair elections as agreed in the AU principles governing democratic elections have not been satisfied.” The report puts the blame squarely on the government: “The existing government’s security measures put substantial restrictions on freedom of expression, association and assembly and do not provide an environment for free participation in the electoral process.” The report recommended that “The planned elections be postponed and the national dialogue be prioritized. That will allow more time to for the creation of an enable environment for credible, transparent and competitive elections”.