COUNTRY OVERVIEW
Brazil, with a population over 200 million, has experienced a period of steady economic growth which has led to a reduction in poverty and efforts to reduce inequality [World Bank, 2015]. Brazil plays an important and unique role in climate change: it has one of the largest economies in the world and has one of the largest ecosystems and forests on the planet, the Amazon. Brazil is vulnerable to climate change impacts, including reduced water availability, risk of coastal flooding, and health risks associated with heat stress and changing patterns of climate sensitive vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. Brazil has announced that it intends to commit to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 37% below 2005 levels by 2025 (Intended Nationally determined Contribution submitted to UNFCCC by Federative Republic of Brazil). The participation of Brazil in global efforts to mitigate climate change provides an opportunity to protect the fragile ecosystem of Brazil alongside promoting positive health outcomes.
SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS
• Under a high emissions scenario, mean annual temperature is projected to rise by about 5.4°C on average from 1990 to 2100. If emissions decrease rapidly, the temperature rise is limited to about 1.6°C.
• Under a high emissions scenario heat-related deaths in the elderly (65+ years) are projected to increase to about 72 deaths per 100,000 by 2080 compared to the estimated baseline of about 1 death per 100,000 annually between 1961 and 1990. A rapid reduction in emissions could limit heatrelated deaths in the elderly to approximately 13 deaths per 100,000 in 2080.
• Under a high emissions scenario, and without large investments in adaptation, an annual average of 618,000 people are projected to be affected by flooding due to sea level rise between 2070 and 2100. If emissions decrease rapidly and there is a major scale up in protection (i.e. continued construction/raising of dikes) the annual affected population could be limited to about 3,200 people. Adaptation alone will not offer sufficient protection, as sea level rise is a long-term process, with high emissions scenarios bringing increasing impacts well beyond the end of the century.
• By 2070, over 168 million people are projected to be at risk of malaria assuming a high emissions scenario. If emissions decrease rapidly, projections indicate this number could be limited to about 126 million.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ACTION
Brazil has an approved national heath adaptation strategy and is taking initiatives to implement health adaptation programmes. Additionally, Brazil is implementing actions to build institutional and technical capacity to work on climate change and health. Country reported data (see section 6) indicate there are further opportunities for action in the following areas:
1) Adaptation
• Roll out activities to increase climate resilience of health infrastructure.
• Estimate costs to implement health resilience to climate change.
2) Mitigation
• Conduct valuation of co-benefits to health of climate change mitigation policies.
3) National Policy Implementation
• Develop a national strategy for climate change mitigation which considers the health implications of climate change mitigation actions.