OVERVIEW
Egypt, a developing country with a population of 88 million,a has achieved measurable success in improving population health over the past few decades (World Bank, 2015).
Egypt, with the Mediterranean coastal region in the North and a very dry climate in other areas, is highly vulnerable to climate change. Much of the population lives on the Nile Delta, and any change in sea level rise threatens agricultural, water and economic security. Furthermore, the country's double burden of disease will be exacerbated by climate change. Increased temperatures could result in increased heat stress and higher rates of diseases such as skin cancers. Infectious and vectorborne diseases could also be exacerbated by changing weather and rainfall patterns.
SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS
• Under a high emissions scenario, mean annual temperature is projected to rise by about 5.6°C on average from 1990 to 2100. If emissions decrease rapidly, the temperature rise is limited to about 1.6°C.
• Under a high emissions scenario, and without large investments in adaptation, an annual average of about 2.4 million people are projected to be affected by flooding due to sea level rise between 2070 and 2100. If emissions decrease rapidly and there is a major scale up in protection (i.e. continued construction/raising of dikes) the annual affected population could be limited to about 700 people. Adaptation alone will not offer sufficient protection, as sea level rise is a long-term process, with high emissions scenarios bringing increasing impacts well beyond the end of the century.
• Under a high emissions scenario heat-related deaths in the elderly (65+ years) are projected to increase to approximately 47 deaths per 100,000 by 2080 compared to the estimated baseline of about one death per 100,000 annually between 1961 and 1990. A rapid reduction in emissions could limit heat-related deaths in the elderly to under 9 deaths per 100,000 in 2080.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ACTION
Egypt has conducted a financial needs assessment required to implement priority mitigation measures in the energy sector. Egypt has also implemented actions to build institutional and technical capabilities to work on climate change and health. Country reported data (see section 6) indicate there are further opportunities for action in the following areas:
1) Adaptation
• Conduct a national assessment of climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation for health.
• Include climate information in an Integrated Surveillance and Response system with early warning and response systems for climate sensitive health risks.
• Strengthen adaptive capacity by building climate resilient infrastructure, including health infrastructure.
• Conduct further cost estimations for the implementation of heath resilience to climate change.
2) Mitigation
• Conduct valuation of co-benefits to health of climate change mitigation policies.
• Use a multi-sectoral approach to mitigate and adapt to sea-level rise with health-sector integration.
3) National policy implementation
• Develop and approve a national health adaptation strategy.
• Build on existing national climate change policies to ensure adequate human, financial and natural resources for such adaptation and mitigation politices.