OVERVIEW
With 173 million people,a Nigeria is the most populated country in Africa. As the continent’s main exporter of oil, Nigeria faces the challenge of balancing global energy demands and domestic economic stability with the need to address climate and environmental considerations.
The impacts of climate change in Nigeria could include rising temperatures, more intense and frequent extreme weather events and sea level rise. For the population this could result in increased water and food insecurity, higher exposure to heat stress and ultraviolet radiation, changes in infectious and vectorborne disease transmission patterns and an increased threat to coastal communities facing sea level rise. Adequate adaptation and mitigation could help to protect public health, development, security and land and water resources from the potential threats posed by climate change.
SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS
• Under a high emissions scenario, mean annual temperature is projected to rise by about 4.9°C on average from 1990 to 2100. If emissions decrease rapidly, the temperature rise is limited to about 1.4°C.
• Under a high emissions scenario, and without large investments in adaptation, an annual average of 548,300 people are projected to be affected by flooding due to sea level rise between 2070 and 2100. If emissions decrease rapidly and there is a major scale up in protection (i.e. continued construction/raising of dikes) the annual affected population could be limited to about 300 people. Adaptation alone will not offer sufficient protection, as sea level rise is a long-term process, with high emissions scenarios bringing increasing impacts well beyond the end of the century.
• Under a high emissions scenario, diarrhoeal deaths attributable to climate change in children under 15 years old are projected to be about 9.8% of the over 76,000 diarrhoeal deaths projected in 2030. Although diarrhoeal deaths are projected to decline to approximately 43,500 by 2050 the proportion of deaths attributable to climate change will rise to approximately 14.2%.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ACTION
Nigeria has an approved National Health Adaptation Strategy, and is currently implementing projects on health adaptation to climate change. Country reported data (see section 6) indicate there are further opportunities for action in the following areas:
1) Adaptation
• Conduct a comprehensive vulnerability and adaptation assessment with a focus on health that includes relevant stakeholders from all sectors.
• Implement actions to build institutional and technical capacities to work on climate change and health.
• Implement activities to increase climate resilience of health infrastructure.
• Estimate the costs to implement health resilence to climate change.
2) Mitigation
• Initiate actions for greening the health sector, such as promoting the use of renewable energy.
• Conduct a valuation of the co-benefits to health of climate mitigation policies.